Through his experience at GitHub, Friedman thought the problem would benefit from having an online community working together. The solution he hit on was to award progress prizes to people who made incremental advances, on condition that they make their work open source. This would allow others to use their methods to keep building towards a solution. “Adding the community cultivation aspect was a twist,” says Howes.

Friedman launched the challenge in March 2023, offering a grand prize of $700,000 to decipher four passages of 140 characters each, or about 5% of a scroll. But he also awarded a ‘first letter’ prize and prizes for other technical achievements. “It provided tremendous encouragement,” says Friedman. “In fact, the grand prize was awarded to people who had previously won individual progress prizes for their contributions.”

Less than a year later, two graduate students and an undergraduate — located in Germany, Switzerland and the United States — connected through the challenge, teamed up and won the grand prize. Friedman says it was “kind of wonderful” that the winners were not part of any elite network, showing how prizes can extract innovation from unexpected places. The snippets of text deciphered so far relate to the pleasure gained from food, a topic of interest to the Epicurean philosopher Philodemus, who was thought to be working in the small library where the scrolls were housed. There are still a few more software problems to be solved, but Friedman hopes all the text will be read in a couple of years.

Not every prize ends with success. Dyson says some of their earliest prizes fell short. He remembers one to cut down on bicycle theft, which led to new lock designs, but simply added to a well-established market. The XPRIZE Foundation, based in Culver City, California, designs and hosts public competitions for technological development, but has cancelled several big challenges; one of these was the $10-million Archon Genomics XPRIZE, which ran from 2006 to 2013 and aimed to increase the speed of human genome sequencing, but was outpaced by independently developed technology. Another was the 2007 $20-million Google Lunar XPRIZE to land a rover on the Moon’s surface, which was cancelled when no team could meet the 2018 deadline.

Success or failure can rest on the challenge chosen. “There needs to be a degree to which you’re not sure where the innovation is going to come from,” says Dyson. “You also need to know that you haven’t already got someone who’s the clear front runner,” and that the problem would benefit from opening it up, says Jamieson. Plus, Friedman adds, it helps if you have a “good story” that can excite people. “It’s a sense of adventure that gets people out of bed.”

It’s not clear to what degree challenge prizes quickly lead to game-changing innovations. Both Sysmex Astrego and Llusern now have approved diagnostic devices for UTIs, but the firms say it will be at least another ten years before their devices become widely used by physicians, because establishing their utility takes time.

Many researchers say that being part of an innovation prize was a positive experience, but they don’t see the contests as a replacement for research funding. “It’s a brilliant thing, but I don’t think that it should be at the expense of the tried-and-tested grant routes,” says Hayhurst.

Challenge Works will be launching a third Longitude prize, to identify and validate drug targets for motor neuron disease (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), a currently incurable neurodegenerative condition. “We’re saying, why don’t we target a disease where there are no treatments, where you can have a really significant transformative impact?” says Dyson. The competition will provide innovators with large data sets from partnering organizations and hold an initial computer-based modelling round. In five years, Challenge Works wants to have validated potential drug targets, with a final award, and open-ended timeline, for delivering a drug that works. Using a prize for something as complex and expensive as developing therapeutics is a risk, but it’s one that Challenge Works hopes will pay off.